← CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event
Fire AggroTier 2
at CGC Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 42.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 40.2% | -4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 26.9% | -13.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.8 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.3% | -11.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.8 |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |